Implosion Continues in the Trinket Industry
Despite the veiled attempts by the various associations and groups to paint the current situation as improving the destruction of the industry continues. Depending on which source the official 2008 sales were down either a little or a lot but there are few suppliers within the industry reporting even mediocre sales. The fact is business was horrible in 2008 and was even worse in 2009 for the majority of suppliers and distributors. There are people that have been in the industry for decades that have never seen it this bad. To find out where the industry is going we have to look at where it has been.
The promotional products industry started decades ago from the concept that there was a market in the corporate arena for branded items. For most of the last few decades that relationship involved three parties, the end user, the distributor and the supplier. Distributors worked to open new accounts by traditional means of cold calling, knocking on doors and networking. They relied on small groups of suppliers to provide product for them and the average distributor historically did well under $200,000 in sales. Along came the associations to act as the de facto referees and central database for the industry. All of these associations would require a membership fee and in turn provide the distributor access to information that would be difficult to obtain elsewhere such as catalogs, pricing, ratings information on the suppliers and credit services for the suppliers. In short they provided a useful service and acted as a go-between greatly reducing acquisition costs for both sides of the aisle. Distributors that did not have entire sourcing departments now had access to hoards of information they would not otherwise be able to gather and suppliers had a targeted and priceless mailing list.
This all began to change in the late 1990's as major online distributors like Branders began to appear. At the same time the use of the internet for sourcing products began to skyrocket circumventing the need for expensive membership services that often did little when subscribers needed them most. Indeed most played a hands off role even in blatant abuses of the system such as suppliers stealing customers directly from distributors. As suppliers began to ramp up their online product listings the ability to jump online and search for the needed product information began to trump the need for expensive and non-eco friendly catalogs. Along came Sage which provided the same basic services as ASI but at a much lower price and the fight was on for the remaining market share. Sadly what the increase in competition did was drive the desire to report success within each association. However the PPAI annual survey has probably summed up the trends most appropriately. Prior to 2000 the industry had experienced consistent and rapid growth. After 2000 the industry has been contracting 50% of the time. Sales are probably still being grossly overestimated as the few companies that reported publicly have taken a huge beating. Several like Norwood and Broder Bros. which occupies the number one spot in the industry for supplier size either threatened bankruptcy or have gone bankrupt. Major suppliers such have Cyrk have also gone off the grid and are no longer in business. Sales for 2008 were atrocious dropping at least 10% and most major suppliers are reporting 20-40% drops in 2009. I am sure the major associations will spin it as just a slight drop but when two of the top 5 suppliers were in danger of or went bankrupt and most of the top 10 had significant staff layoffs the situation is grim. Actual sales will likely be down more than 20% in the promotional products industry in 2009. There will be more failures on both sides of the aisle as distributors collapse under the weight of shrinking credit and increasing delinquencies of customers. Suppliers face the same concerns as distributors are increasingly stressed. Although the data is rarely released it is obvious the credit departments of many suppliers are under strain trying to deal with collections. In general the business credit reporting agencies report the average days beyond terms has extended to 10 up from 2 earlier in 2009. That's a rapid descent and with credit availability scheduled to shrink in the trillions this year and next it will only get worse.