The title of todays post is a play on words from the show Lost which at this point has me totally confused and lost as to whether or not I even enjoying watching it at this stage.  The ceramic portion comes from excitement that the Promotional Double Wall Ceramic Tumbler has finally begun to show back up on the shelves of industry manufacturers.  It is still a bit of a puzzle as to why these particular tumblers took off in popularity.  Ceramic obvioiusly has the advantage of being a better insulator than less durable materials.  It also has the unfortunate property of being able to break easily  As a result most suppliers will only ship in specific and preset quantities with Hit Promo requiring seventy two piece increments.  This makes sense given the fact that they are packed in 72 piece lots and removing even a few of those pieces would weaken the structure that comprises the shipping container.  Whatever the issue these tumblers were gone in an instant from almost every manufacturer that made them and are only now beginning to return.  Shipping problems with these products getting out of Asia delayed restocking.  Afraid of a repeat performance later in the year we are seeing most of the big players bringing in stock approaching six figures in value which should relieve the shortages.   Hit Promo is leading the way by undercutting the others in ounce capacity which has allowed them to cut their cost and starting price point.

Now back to part two of this entry.  What is going on with Lost?  Tonight appeared to be one of those episodes where they had about twenty minutes of material for a forty minute show.  It brought back memories from the middle years of the show where we would watch and wonder why the show was moving so slowly.  Tonight had all the normal metaphors but very little substance.  I am sure when we are all watching it on the networks years from now on some weekend marathon it will make more sense but it has continued to waiver to the point of being almost difficult to watch.  With only a few episodes left let's hope it comes to a meaningful if not already predictable conclusion.

Please take a minute to read some of our earlier entries such as Keeping the Message Cool and the on topic insulating business growth with ceramics for additional reviews.  We will be adding multiple reviews of new products in the coming days.

First a quick detour as we discuss some new custom coolers.  There are many ways to keep your food and drinks cold.  Some choose portable mechanisms such as the Gemline Party To Go Cooler which provides for storage of up to 32 cans.  With a mega 16" opening even the largest of bottles or containers will fit easily.  The less bulky Life In Motion Collapsible Cooler is also heat sealed and has a front zippered pocket.  With a top grab handle and sporting PEVA lining it is a safe alternative to less expensive and less safe coolers promoted by some organizations.   The limited size of the cooler will make it less popular with the beach crowd which is where the Life in Motion Cooler comes into play.  With a huge 36 can capacity it can also hold about any size container.  It is also useful in carrying bottles and has an attached metal bottle opener.   When in doubt by a PEVA cooler as they do not contain PVC which requires the use of environmentally dangerous materials in production.

Equally dangerous is trusting a major retailer.  Sears sells all manner and types of appliances including refrigerators.  The recent purchase and subsequent disaster is a perfect case study in how not to conduct the servicing of a client.  As an example a fridge is purchased for $170 and lasts exactly three months before the compressor fails.  Under warranty for one year as part of the stores premium brand name the refrigerator is repaired.  In order to facilitate the repair a technician is first sent to the location.  A normal service call from the same company runs at least $125.  The technician determines a compressor is needed.  The cost of shipping the failed part and installing it runs over $300 per the slip.  The part is installed and the refrigerator works for another month before failing under the same circumstances.  Another service call is made at presumably a similar cost and another compressor is sent this time overnight.  Compressors weigh a substantial amount so this was not an inexpensive shipment.  The servicing technician determines the compressor is fine and instead believes another part has failed which is replaced.  Total cost to date of repairs in terms of shipping and labor totals over $700 per the slips provide by the servicing firm.  Customers suggestion that the refrigerator be replaced after the first failure are ignored.   The customer believes there is no justification in repeatedly repairing a refrigerator that costs the store less than $150.  After the second repair the refrigerators lasts approximately three days before failing yet again under the same circumstances.  The local store realizes how fruitless the situation is and agrees to replace the item with the identical model.   The customer has no problems with the identical model but new refrigerator.  Total cost to the retailer is over $700 and in the end they ended up replacing the item and taking a dead loss of $150.  But they also lost the customer for life but did manage to acquire enough bad will to steer dozens of customers away from the store for years to come.  Somewhere along the line executives need to use some common sense and realize the costs of fixing an item repeatedly both in terms of loss of goodwill and hard costs far exceeds the costs of replacing an item and appeasing a customer.   As the economy continues to contract retailers of all types are sharpening their pencils.  The above example illustrates how an over zealous pencil pusher can inadvertently cost a company dearly down the road.  Once a legitimate problem is identified and repeated attempts to resolve an issue have failed sellers need to find and provide alternative resolutions.  As the saying goes in this case this particular retailer won the battle but lost the war.  They held their ground and may have won the battle initially on getting an item replaced but lost the war in the end as not only did they end up replacing the item but all faith is lost in the business.

You can follow updates to this blog on our twitter page as well as reading previous articles such as Green Promos in time for Earth Day.

This afternoon on a major business network owned by GE (hint hint) one of the on air reporters said his sources are telling him business essentially came to a halt on or about September 30th.  Our sources within the marketing industry tell us much of the same with dozens of ASI suppliers and distributors reporting slow sales at recent trade events.  Of course the figures released later this winter will show a growing industry in 2008 but those numbers can end up being about as accurate as the real estate numbers we kept hearing the last two years from NAR.  

Media advertising budgets continue to be ravaged by the economic stall.  Newspaper advertising sales are at decade lows with no end in sight as readership of the traditional print offerings has vanished.  Online advertising sales continue to grow but for the big print publications it will likely not be enough to offset the losses.  Compounding the problem is the demise of the US Auto Industry and as a result all of those weekend sales advertisements that helped support the bottom line. 

Consumer confidence is falling by record amounts, car sales are terrible, consumer sales are terrible but hey we have lower gas prices!  It is disgusting to see how far off the predictions have been for oil prices and oil consumption since the spring.  One has to think it was deliberate manipulation, how can any expert have predicted $200 for oil and actually believe it wouldn't collapse demand?  How can everything have changed so quickly in just 70 days that oil prices have fallen 50%?  What are we doing to prevent such manipulation in the future?  All the candidates talk about it but will any of them refuse the money from the oil lobby to protect the citizens?

The equity markets are bi-polar, up one day down the next to such extremes that in the last 40 days the market has been up or down by less than 100 points only three times.  On Monday the market goes up and everyone is happy and talking about how it may not be that bad, by Wednesday we are back to hearing about just how bad the economy is now.   The bottom line?  Major corporations struggled for three weeks to fund operations.  While they were searching their market caps were smashed eliminating one possible avenue.   Budgets were slashed and expenditures cut.  The immediate effects were not felt until the last week or two when businesses further down the chain noted lost sales.  Retailers, car dealers and other front line businesses saw the initial shock instantly but it was tough to gauge as business has already fallen off in August.  As business fell at an incredible pace organizations began laying off, cutting back hours and pay of staff.  This process is accelerating now as we head into the crucial holiday season.  A bust of a holiday season will put some retailers out of business including large national brands that were symbols of our success in the 1990s. 

It is going to get much uglier before it gets better and it is going to happen quickly in the next few weeks.  Oil prices are not falling because the oil companies decided we needed a break, they're falling because nobody is buying gas with 5% decreases in the last month versus the same month last year.  That decrease is the result of commerce stalling and Bernanke and company are right in realizing we need another stimulus immediately or the long road down will be another Depression.   Hopefully the assistance programs we have in place are enough to help but they will surely get tested barring an economic Houdini by the Federal Reserve and Treasury. 

From this point on the discussion will mainly center around the ad specialties industry, products, businesses and trade issues.